A Simulation Of The Padres Future Using Out Of The Park Baseball 18

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(AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)


While no big splashy moves were made, the Padres got better, claiming Matt Bush off waivers, and trading for Aaron Judge and Alex Claudio in separate deals. They also signed Cuban free agent, Alfredo Despaigne. While they did have to trade Travis Jankowksi to get Claudio, Jankowski fell back to being a .230 hitter after his 2019 breakout. Walter Lockett and Miguel Diaz both made the starting rotation, but no rookies made the opening day lineup. Jose Rondon did make the opening day roster after getting called up in 2019 though.

The 2020 season showed the Padres may have a pattern going, as they went 70-92, which makes it two .500 seasons with two sub-.500 seasons so far in this simulation. They still finished 4th in the N.L. West, as the Diamondbacks had a terrible season, but the season was a full-blown disappointment, as the whole team seemed to have a down year. Eric Lauer did make his way to the major league club, debuting at 25 years old. The few bright spots were Luis Torrens, who picked up 3.2 WAR and doubled his previous best for home runs with 14, as well as providing excellent defense. Closer Bobby Wahl also had a great season, pitching to a 2.31 ERA while racking up 34 saves and striking out 14.8 batters per nine. Lastly, Carlos Rodon had another excellent season with a 2.92 ERA while going 15-7 over 222 innings pitched. He also pitched a great game against the Giants in September, racking up 15 strikeouts in 8 innings.


In the last season of the simulation, the Padres make some serious moves to at least be near contention. They traded for a still productive, but old, Carlos Gonzalez, and also got two relief aces in Kyle Barraclough and Yuki Matsui. They also dumped the salaries of Alfredo Despaigne and Aaron Judge, both who struggled mightily in their only seasons in San Diego. Preller signed free agents, Aaron Sanchez and Keone Kela. Sanchez was struggling with walks with the Blue Jays, so he came very cheap, and should rebound in Petco Park, While Kela is a force in the bullpen. Also, Trevor Hoffman was FINALLY elected to the Hall of Fame. A few rookies made the opening day roster, as Chris Paddack and Rafael de Paula both made the rotation. Although de Paula did pitch about 40 innings out of the bullpen in 2020 as well.

The 2021 season finally proved a successful one for the Padres, as they went 89-73 to win an N.L. Wild Card spot, but eventually lost in four games to the Dodgers in the NLDS. The season was carried by an excellent bullpen that led the National League in ERA with 2.74. It was led by the three-headed monster of Bobby Wahl, Kyle Barraclough, and Christian Bethancourt. Overall, the starting rotation was bad outside of Carlos Rodon, who, for the fourth season in a row, led the Friars in strikeouts and ERA. Wei Chung Wang was also having a good season, until he was shipped away to the Indians for a first baseman. Some breakout players were Meibrys Viloria, who was acquired from the Royals in 2017 and finally took over as the starting catcher to put up 3.3 WAR with .290 batting average and 14 home runs to go with excellent defense. Franchy Cordero also had a power surge, hitting 18 home runs in 243 at bats to go with a .613 slugging percentage.

So far, as of the end of the 2021 season, 15 of the Padres top-20 prospects (according to mlb.com) had made the majors. They’re listed below.

Anderson Espinoza (an ace throwing 100+ mph for the Mets, never played for SD)

Cal Quantrill (mid-rotation starter for Pirates, never played for SD)

Luis Urias (bench 2B for Padres)

Fernando Tatis Jr.(starting shortstop for the Athletics, never played for SD)

Eric Lauer (long reliever for the Mariners, 7 GS for SD)

Carlos Asuaje (utility man for the Royals, played 3 seasons with SD)

Michael Gettys (in Diamondbacks minor leagues, 10 games with SD)

Josh Naylor (bench first baseman/DH for the Yankees, 23 games with SD)

Chris Paddack (reliever for the Astros, 32 games started for SD)

Enyel De Los Santos (reliever for Diamondbacks, never played for SD)

Phil Maton (middle reliever for the Brewers, 11 games with SD)

Logan Allen (at Double A, but still has promise, so I put him on here)

Luis Almanzar (starting shortstop for the Brewers, never played for SD)

Jeisson Rosario (bench outfielder for the Padres, -0.2 WAR in 2021)

Four regulars out of 20 prospects is a pretty good success rate in my opinion, and if you count Urias, Lauer, Paddack, who all were starters with the Padres at some point, then that makes it 7.

Also, notable Padres youngsters haven’t panned out too well.

Wil Myers– Starting first baseman for the Nationals, but only had one good season after 2016, hitting 41 home runs in 2018 with the Dodgers.

Manuel Margot– Was non-tendered in 2021, after dealing with many injuries and not contributing much on the field

Hunter Renfroe– Became a minor league free agent in 2021, after never establishing himself at the major leagues

Austin Hedges– Starting catcher for the Mets, who consistently puts up 2-4 WAR every year, due in large part to his excellent defense, but only played one full season in San Diego (2017)

Luis Perdomo- Starting pitcher for the Rangers, and has yet to go a full season with an ERA under 5.00. Was traded away by the Padres at 2018 trade deadline.

Allen Cordoba- Starting shortstop for the Padres, and had two 5+ WAR seasons, followed by two 2+ WAR seasons.

Travis Jankowski– Starting center fielder for the Rangers, puts up anywhere from 1 WAR to 5 WAR each season, but was traded away by the Padres in the 2020 off-season.

In summary, the Padres future is still up in the air. I mean even the simulation team wasn’t consistent, going from .500 to trash two separate years before finally making the playoffs. We can’t base anything off of this, as it was only a simulation, and anything can happen in real life. Hunter Renfroe might grow some patience and turn into an MVP candidate, as opposed to his simulation self. But a Padres fan can only hope. And as for how Anderson Espinoza’s career turned out, lets hope he just stays with the Padres.

2 thoughts on “A Simulation Of The Padres Future Using Out Of The Park Baseball 18

  1. Hand will be traded this July, not in 2019. Chris Carter? Why would we want him? He’s Ryan Howard Part Deaux. And we’re not trading our #1 prospect to the Giants. lol

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