The Professor’s Friar Findings: Hypothetical Padres Transactions for the 2018 Season
These are my own opinions and do not reflect the views of the East Village Times staff.
I’m looking for your feedback and always looking for ideas, so please leave a comment or feel free to tweet me @TheProfessorPQ. Thanks and enjoy.
Every season for every Major League team, there are countless transactions that occur that can be expected (Headley Designated for Assignment), and can also be out of nowhere (prospect Franmil Reyes being the first hitter called up in 2018). In this Friar Findings, I am going to assess possible Padres moves with the probability of it happening.
Outfielder Wil Myers will be placed on the 60-day DL. Probability: 80%
Myers is currently dealing with the dreaded oblique strain and was placed on the DL on April 29. A report by Lindsay Berra of MLB.com last April showed that typically, oblique strains take 27 days for hitters to recover from, which would not indicate a 60-day DL bid. However, most oblique strains lead to other problems down the road. With the Padres not in a hurry to bring back Myers (he has not resumed baseball activities yet), I do not see him coming back before late June. This move will allow the Padres a 40-man roster spot, which will be used on a prospect.
Pitcher Luis Perdomo will be recalled to start on 05/21/2018. Probability: 90%
Perdomo’s recent start line’s up so that the Padres can plug him into the first game against the Washington Nationals next Monday. Since being sent down to the hitter-friendly PCL, the 25-year-old right-hander has pitched much better, limiting his walks to seven in 35 innings while striking out 31. This move makes the most sense for the Padres.
Freddy Galvis, A.J. Ellis, Jordan Lyles, and Tyson Ross will be moved at the deadline. Probability: 75%
All four of these players are working on contracts that expire at the end of the year, except for Lyles, who is under contract through 2019. With the influx of prospects at these positions, it seems that these would be the ideal guys to move at the deadline.
Ross and Lyles have seen revival years. Both are pitching way better than anyone would have expected. Nobody saw this coming. Not only are they both in the rotation at this point of the season, but both are looking at complete turnarounds from years past. It is not out of the realm of possibility to see both of them moved, but more likely Ross will be the one that goes. A team like the Dodgers, who has had an awful run of pitching injuries, may be a fit because they are looking for cheap alternatives as they do not want to go over the luxury tax.
Jordan Lyles has 7 perfect innings. He’s thrown 15 balls all day. He’s been in a 3-ball count once. Through 7, he’s pitched as well as you could possibly pitch.
— AJ Cassavell (@AJCassavell) May 15, 2018
Galvis and Ellis are ideal veteran players that can add value to any team. They both play positions that are sought after and can add a nice addition to any team looking for a boost at the deadline. A team like the Mariners would be a fit for Galvis, who can play gold-glove defense with a switch-hitting bat, and meanwhile, the Mets may still be a fit for Ellis, even after acquiring Devin Mesoraco earlier from the Reds.
This dude Freddy Galvis tho…#Padres pic.twitter.com/yfm6oVW3wv
— John Silva (@JohnnySilva619) March 29, 2018
Shortstop Luis Urias’ contract will be selected. Probability: 99%
It seems like a certainty that Urias will be recalled in 2018, but 100% just seemed too aggressive. Urias has been getting time at shortstop lately, and once the Padres move Galvis, he will become the shortstop to finish the year, getting regular at-bats not at second base.
Pitchers Brett Kennedy and Walker Lockett will be recalled. Probability: 50%
Both of these guys are here because of the influx of prospects that need to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the year: Chris Paddack, Anderson Espinoza, and Austin Allen are just to name a few, so that they are not available in the Rule 5 draft. Lockett and Kennedy will be given an opportunity to show their worth.
Lockett has not exactly lit up the stat-board this year, with a 5.12 ERA in 45.2 innings, but this is a do-or-die year for him. He will get a Major League look at some point this season because he is on the 40-man roster.
Kennedy continues to be a prospect that gets overlooked. Although he is on the DL right now, he has once again pitched well in the Minor Leagues. The guy is a grinder and he is going to earn a look.
Shortstop Javier Guerra will be recalled. Probability: 75%
As said above, the Padres have to make a decision on their 40-man roster, so Guerra will be given a look at some point this season. He may not stick, but he will be a Padre again before the season is done.
Infielder Cory Spangenberg will be Designated for Assignment. Probability: 50%
Spangenberg will be given an opportunity to show his value with the Padres, but will ultimately be moved. There is too much depth in the system and Spangenberg unfortunately does not fit in the future plans.
Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela and Matt Szczur will not be Padres by September. Probability: 25%
Let us start with Szczur. He is a true team player, he does all the small things right, and is really only on the team due to the many injuries to our outfield. His lack of options is the reason he is on the list and the most likely to be moved. Some team will take a chance on him.
Renfroe and Pirela are in the same boat here and will be moved because their value is much higher than other current outfielders. Both will be available for free agency in 2023. The upside on Renfroe is too much to pass up and Pirela’s ability to play a decent second base improves his.
Travis Jankowski and Franmil Reyes could replace Renfroe and Pirela here, but it seems unlikely. Jankowski and Reyes will not get the same value as the two above, and at this point, it still makes sense for the Padres to get the most value out of any trade.
Logan Allen’s contract will be selected, not Cal Quantrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. Probability: 20%
Allen is now in his third year with the organization after coming over in the Craig Kimbrel deal. He has been tremendous in the early part of this year with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. His pitching command is closer to MLB ready than Quantrill’s at this point. He will make the jump to Triple-A soon and the promotion to the big leagues should happen before the year is over.
With the amount of prospects getting looks, it does not make sense to see Quantrill and Tatis Jr. unless there are a rash of injuries.
The Padres need to evaluate Carlos Asuaje, Guerra, Spangenberg, and others, so it does not make sense that Tatis come up at any point this season. Let him take the year and give him a shot in spring training to make the team.
The same goes for Quantrill. He is a year behind because of the Tommy John surgery and can use this year to refine his pitching command and improve his secondary pitches.
Austin Allen’s contract will be selected in September. Probability: 25%
Allen has been crushing the ball at Double-A San Antonio, .319/.380/.607, with eight home runs in 135 at-bats in his first year in the Texas League. The left-hand hitting catcher has a lot to improve on in the defensive aspects of the game, but his bat will be useful in September when rosters expand. The Padres will need to add him to the 40-man over the winter anyway to avoid losing him in the Rule 5 draft, so they might as well give him a taste.
Wil Myers will be traded in the off-season. Probability: 15%
This will honestly come down to value. It is hard to see a situation where he does go, but if they get something that works, Preller will not hesitate to move Myers. He ultimately does not fit in the long term plan for the Padres, simply because he is not an outfielder. In an ideal situation, a move of Myers to a team that needs a bat for a Major League-ready pitcher would be perfect. He would get the opportunity to play at first base and the Padres would get more pitching depth, which is never bad.
Mark Grant’s play-by-play call of Wil Myers’ cycle ? pic.twitter.com/fyBOnCstJU
— Adam (@SD_Sports19) April 11, 2017
The fact is, this will be a busy 2018. There are too many unknowns for the future, and at some point, the Padres need to start giving younger guys the chance. It will be interesting to see how it progresses because one thing is certain; this is not be the same roster now as it will be at the end of the year.
Since he was a little kid he wanted to be one of those guys at the game who had the headset on, listening to the Colonel and Uncle Teddy, he has grown out of that, but the love is still there. Padres’ coverage will be biased at times, but mostly an honest dissection of the team he loves.