Piecing together the Padres’ 2020 rotation

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Taking a look at the 2020 San Diego Padres’ starting rotation. 

After a pair of trades to start the winter off-season, A.J. Preller and the Padres’ front office has made their intent to win in 2020 crystal clear.

A vital component of a winning team in the upcoming season will need to be an improved and more consistent starting rotation.

There are plenty of in house candidates and some still on the open market that should be vying for the five rotation spots come Feb. 10 when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Opening Day Starter: Chris Paddack

One year after making the Opening Day roster with only a brief stint above high-A Lake Elsinore, Chris Paddack stands today as the favorite for the number one spot in the rotation among the incumbents.

Paddack quickly won over the hearts of Padres fans in 2019 with his pregame attire, high stirrups, “sheriff” moniker, competitive drive, and above all, his production. Scouts touted his fastball-change up combo as one of the best in the minors before his debut, and he showed it off from day one in San Diego. His curve looked at times to be a serviceable pitch, but he never quite showed consistent command of the pitch.

Known as a control artist in the minors, Paddack continued to attack the zone at the major league level. The better competition took advantage of that aggressiveness as they were able to foul off pitches, extending at-bats and rapidly raising his pitch count, limiting Paddack’s ability to work deep into games.

With the arrival of Larry Rothschild as the new pitching coach, look for Paddack to potentially begin to develop a slider. During Rothschild’s tenure in New York, the Yankees became one of the most slider heavy staffs in the league. If Paddack can develop a third out pitch, that will go a long way towards elevating him to the next level and bolstering a pitching staff looking for a top of the rotation option.

2019 was also Paddack’s first full season back from undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016. As a result, Paddack’s usage was limited as the Padres switched to a 6-man rotation for much of the second half of the season and kept close track of his pitch count in his outings. In 2020, the reigns should be entirely off, and Paddack will look to attack opposing hitters with the same tenacity he did in his rookie campaign, this time entirely free and healthy.

2. Joey Lucchesi

Lucchesi will be going into his third year at the major league level but will need to make significant strides in 2020 to remain a starter in this rotation beyond the upcoming season.

At times, Lucchesi has flashed the potential of a number two or three pitcher in a talented rotation, but his struggles once he starts facing opponents for the third time in a game have been well documented. Over his first two seasons, the opponent’s OPS jumps over 250 points to a ghastly .943 when Lucchesi faces a batter for the third time in a game.

His K/BB ratio also suffers mightily as it drops over two points down to 1.36. Lucchesi has yet to show growth in his ability to pitch deeper into games, and his ability to remain in the game is going to be the key to his future in San Diego with younger options knocking on the door.

Some Padres fans have suggested Lucchesi may be best served as a multi-inning guy out of the pen who can provide reliable help in the middle frames. But there may be another solution that keeps him in the rotation.

Cal Quantrill is another pitcher who has numbers that show a significant drop off as he hitters got multiple looks at him. His early struggles after his call up played a part in a temporary move to the bullpen that saw him post an ERA under 1 in 11.1 innings. Eventually, he was moved back into the rotation, where he showed signs of improvement.

Still, he ERA skyrocketed again when he hit a stretch in August and September, where he gave up eight earned runs in three consecutive starts. The Padres may be best served by piggybacking Lucchesi and Quantrill to keep hitters from getting too familiar at the plate as they’re forced to adjust to two opposite-handed pitchers with very different pitch mixes.

Even with his struggles, Lucchesi is one of the more accomplished and experienced candidates among the Padres’ current rotation options, and barring any significant transactions, he is essentially a lock for the opening day rotation.

3. Dinelson Lamet

Much like Paddack, Lamet is going to be looking to head into 202o fully healthy after recovering from Tommy John surgery and seeing a few months of action in 2019. Lamet’s stuff has long been the epitome of what scouts dream about. His fastball blows hitters away and is paired with a slider that seems to disappear as it approaches the plate. When these pitches are working together, Lamet has shown the ability to generate high strikeout numbers. Unlike Paddack, Lamet isn’t exactly known for his control, and that’s plagued him at times in the majors.

Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Lamet displayed better command of his pitches this past year compared to his first taste of big-league pitching in 2017. He limited walks to the tune of a one-point jump in his K/BB ratio to 3.5, continuing to do so in 2020 gives the Padres a valuable young piece to help anchor the rotation.

Despite struggling with walks at times, Lamet pitches fairly well deeper into games as his command improved the longer he stayed in 2019. Though his strikeout rate dropped, his K/BB ratio jumped nearly two points each additional time he faced a batter.

Projection systems aren’t exactly high on Lamet, but a big part of that is the limited usage they see him getting in 2020. If he’s able to stay healthy and contribute a full starter’s workload, he should be poised for a big jump and should be one of several exciting starters pitching for the Padres next season.

4. Zach Davies

Acquired in the same deal that brought over Trent Grisham, Davies will essentially replace Eric Lauer in the rotation after he went to Milwaukee in the trade. Davies has managed to put together some solid seasons over the first years of his major league career, but his peripherals suggest that he has been seriously over performing.

In 2019, arguably the best year of his career so far, Davies’s ERA was over a full run lower than his FIP, suggesting that the Brewers defense may have helped him out quite a bit. Davies has shown a sustained ability to limit walks throughout his career, something that we’ve already discussed some of the rotation candidates have struggled to do, but he struggles to miss bats, striking out 0.70 batters per inning.

Additionally, Davies has only pitched more than 165 innings once his career despite average 26 starts over the past four seasons. In many ways, there was much more to be optimistic about with Lauer than there seems to be with Davies.

With the incoming arrival of Gore and Patino, 2020 should ultimately be Davies’s only season in the opening day rotation, and it would certainly be a surprise to see him last through the year without being relegated to a relief role.

5. Garrett Richards

Garrett Richards can be a pretty intriguing option for the fifth spot in the Padres rotation if he can get over the big hurdle of staying healthy.

Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Once a touted pitching prospect with the Angels, Richards has only made it through two full seasons as a starter as he’s been plagued by injuries throughout his career, including a recent recovery from Tommy John surgery.

In one of those seasons, he threw over 200 innings while racking up 176 strikeouts and a 3.65 ERA; he seemed like he was finally turning into the top of the rotation arm the Angels needed. But he was then limited to just six starts, albeit solid stretches, in his next two seasons.

In 2018, his last year with the Angels, he threw 76.1 innings over 16 starts with 87 strikeouts before being diagnosed with a torn UCL that ended his season and resulted in the aforementioned surgery.

That offseason, he signed a two-year deal with the Padres with the hope that he would recover in time to see limited action over the last month of 2019, but with most of his work coming in 2020. He did return in time to make three short starts in September, never pitching past the fourth inning.

Richards has never been a huge strikeout guy, but his rates are certainly higher than Davies, and his rates have trended upwards in the limited action that he’s seen over the previous few seasons. Going into 2020, the hope is that Richards will be able to maintain that trend along with his health and provide valuable innings to a team that is looking to be playing .500 baseball for the first time in a decade.

Total Views: 1081 ,
(Visited 2,768 times, 1 visits today)
Bradley Garland
Growing up in Dodgers country, Bradley would proudly display his Padres fandom through the roughest years of non competitiveness and rebuilding. With the Padres on the verge of contending, he’s excited to get the opportunity to cover them on a regular basis along with their minor league system.

7 thoughts on “Piecing together the Padres’ 2020 rotation

  1. Patino, Gore, Paddach and Lamet, if they stay healthy, are going to take our Pads to the playoffs every year! But probably not this year! We need to remember they are VERY young! If Patino and Gore can come up and get a taste this year, it will benefit the team, in the long run! While Clevinger would be terrific to have BUT if we have to give away our future in Patino, Trammel, Campansano and/or Abrams, I think the Pads should pass. These kids are going to be really good! Trade Hedges, Mejia, Weathers, Wintenger, Lucchesi but keep this core of kids! Pads are going to be the “West Coast Astros” without the trash cans, in a couple of years! Let the kids play! Go Pads!

    1. Agree 100%. Our top 5 prospects should be off limits. However, any prospect after them are more than throw in’s, as our 2nd 5 propects would be many teams top 5.

  2. Agree with you Jason, been reading good things about Clevinger. Great “swing and miss” rate, good overall numbers. 28 yrs old , and controlled thru 2022. Would definitely take some doing to get him, but could be worth it. Be willing to package either Lucchesi or Quantrill, plus Patino and another prospect in the 15-30 range to get him, with one caveat. Hosmer is included in the deal! Need to move his contract (maybe even kick in $$$$). Move Naylor’s bat to 1st base, where he belongs.
    As for Gore, wouldn’t want him to leave ST on the roster. Send him back to AA for more seasoning, development, whatever. Everything you read, hear, says he’s dominant, “the man”, but he’s only had a short stint at AA. Let him continue to work and prove it.
    Situation is a lot different than it was for Paddack going into 2019. Pads are a different team pitching-wise going into this year. Far greater talent, even without a Clevinger. Along with Paddack, there’s Lamet, Davies, Garret Richards and either Quantrill or Lucchesi (whichever isn’t traded) and we’re not even mentioning Morejon, Margevicus, or Bolaños. All need the chance to show they belong.
    So, unless Gore is completely “off the charts” I’d keep him in the minors. Let him serve as competitive motivation for others.
    Plus, waiting you better control his innings. And even more, his “controllable” years!

  3. Pads should pick up and ace like mike clevinger to anchor the rotation I want the rotation to be 1 clevinger 2 paddack 3 gore 4 Lamet 5 davies/Richards also we should pick up a center fielder like Sterling Marte and a second baseman like whit merrifield

  4. Gore > Paddack but only pitched a few innings at AA. Still, if the Padres are going with the best pitching rotation for 2020, unless Gore fails miserably in spring training, predict he’ll break camp as one of the starters just like Paddack did last year. Who exits? Well, we still don’t know the extent Richards, Paddack and Lamet can go full-time, so one could start slowly on the IL. Also, we are still upgrading the team and need another complete OF as well as help in other areas. One of the pitchers could be traded (more likely Lucchesi than the others) or moved to the pen to open the spot for Gore, who would be in the same innings limit as Paddack. This year, there appears to be a few more SP options to skip Gore’s spot in the rotation more than we had last year in Paddack’s case.

  5. Richards, Lamet, Paddack should anchor the staff. Experience and stuff says Garrett would be the alpha but limitations will temper that. Pure stuff, there is no one currently on the roster that has swing and miss like Dinelson. He in my mind would give Chris a run for the stopper if not for innings limits in 2020. Watching Chris and Dinelson feed off of each other to be top dog for years to come is music to the ears.

    Zac Davies is an upgrade from Eric Lauer and has the track record pitching in hitter friendly parks of the NL central. His baseline will start where Eric’s needed next step would have been. If they can get 160 to 180 innings from Zac, .500 and beyond is very much in reach.

    That leave the back end spots for the rest to battle for. In your piece you have stated it’s make or break time for Joey. Assuming he doesn’t get traded, that fact puts him in the has to earn a spot. I would put Cal in the same spot including the potential trade candidate. What’s going in Cals favor is in his first half dozen starts he’s shown he can get ML batters out, even when he doesn’t have his best. Give him a complete season and I would think his floor is equal to what Joey has shown the last two seasons.

    Ronald Bolanos would seem like the next man up with giving starting another go for Michel Baez. Adrian Morejon needs to start in Amarillo/ El Paso to show he is completely healthy and shouldn’t be called back up without momentum to more consistency. If you look at the escalator clauses in Drew’s contract, it isn’t out of the question for him to get some time starting as well. Strahm could, Perdomo could. All this group will be how spring training rolls out. Or trades.

    Speaking of Spring training, MacKenzie was in the exact same spot Chris Paddack was last Spring. Luis Patino seems more like a mid season call up at best but he too could force that timeline. With still half the offseason to go through it’s premature to call a rotation. If the right deal is out there to land a TOR type with control it should be considered. For me the caveat would be not at the expense of Gore or Patino. They are both Padres within 12 to 14 months.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Copyright © All rights reserved. | CoverNews by AF themes.

Please disable your adblocker or whitelist this site!

.stats_block { background: #E8E8E8; border: 1px solid #DCDCDC; font-size: 15px; padding: 10px 5px; margin: 10px 0px; }
Total Views: 1082 ,
(Visited 2,768 times, 1 visits today)
var quads_screen_width = document.body.clientWidth; if ( quads_screen_width >= 1140 ) {document.write(''); (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); }if ( quads_screen_width >= 1024 && quads_screen_width < 1140 ) {document.write(''); (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); }if ( quads_screen_width >= 768 && quads_screen_width < 1024 ) {document.write(''); (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); }if ( quads_screen_width < 768 ) {document.write(''); (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); }
{ "@context" : "http://schema.org", "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Bradley Garland", "url" : "", "sameAs" : [ ] }
Bradley Garland
Growing up in Dodgers country, Bradley would proudly display his Padres fandom through the roughest years of non competitiveness and rebuilding. With the Padres on the verge of contending, he’s excited to get the opportunity to cover them on a regular basis along with their minor league system.