Early 2022 projections favorable for Padres

Credit: Padres

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(Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)

Like every team in baseball, the San Diego Padres have as many questions as answers thanks to the shutdown and delayed start of spring training.

Who will replace Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop?  Will Eric Hosmer or Wil Myers start the season with the team? Which pitcher/pitchers will make the back of the rotation? Will slugger Luke Voit be limited to designated hitter?

Where will CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore begin the season? How many catchers will be included on the big league roster?  Will the Padres name a closer or go with a committee? Who will be named the opening day starter?  Will Dinelson Lamet get a chance to close out games?

Despite the upheaval caused by the shutdown, a few prognosticators have published their projections.

According to these, the San Diego Padres have a chance to make up for last year’s second-half swoon.

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National League West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers 101-61
  2. San Diego Padres 98-64 (wild card)
  3. San Francisco Giants 87-75
  4. Colorado Rockies 62-100
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks 58-104

National League Central

  1. Milwaukee Brewers 94-68
  2. St. Louis Cardinals 91-71 (wild card)
  3. Chicago Cubs 83-79
  4. Cincinnati Reds 74-88
  5. Pittsburgh Pirates 57-105

National League East

  1. Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
  2. Atlanta Braves 82-80
  3. New York Mets 76-86
  4. Washington Nationals 71-91
  5. Miami Marlins 66-96

American League West

  1. Houston Astros 97-65
  2. Oakland Athletics 91-71 (wild card)
  3. Los Angeles Angels 81-81
  4. Seattle Mariners 77-85
  5. Texas Rangers 61-101

American League Central

  1. Chicago White Sox 95-67
  2. Detroit Tigers 88-74
  3. Cleveland Guardians 85-74
  4. Kansas City Royals 71-91
  5. Minnesota Twins 69-93

American League East

  1. Tampa Bay Rays 98-64
  2. New York Yankees 95-67
  3. Boston Red Sox 90-72
  4. Toronto Blue Jays 89-73
  5. Baltimore Orioles 54-109


Wild Card

Al   Yankees

NL   Padres


AL1   Yankees

AL2   Astros

NL1   Phillies

NL2   Dodgers (over Padres)


AL   Yankees

NL    Dodgers

World Series

Yankees over the Dodgers


Power Rankings, Alyson Footer

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Chicago White Sox
  3. Tampa Bay Rays
  4. New York Yankees
  5. New York Mets
  6. Toronto Blue Jays
  7. Atlanta Braves
  8. Houston Astros
  9. San Francisco Giants
  10. San Diego Padres
  11. Milwaukee Brewers
  12. Boston Red Sox
  13. St. Louis Cardinals
  14. Seattle Mariners
  15. Philadelphia Phillies
  16. Detroit Tigers
  17. Los Angeles Angels
  18. Cleveland Guardians
  19. Miami Marlins
  20. Oakland A’s
  21. Cincinnati Reds
  22. Texas Rangers
  23. Chicago Cubs
  24. Kansas City Royals
  25. Chicago Cubs
  26. Washington Nationals
  27. Colorado Rockies
  28. Arizona D-backs
  29. Pittsburg Pirates
  30. Baltimore Orioles


American League West

  1. Los Angeles 89-73
  2. Houston Astros 87-75
  3. Texas Rangers 83-79
  4. Seattle Mariners 80-82
  5. Oakland A’s 71-91

American League Central

  1. Chicago White sox 94-68
  2. Detroit Tigers 83-79
  3. Kansas City Royals 80-82
  4. Cleveland Guardians 78-84
  5. Minnesota Twins 74-88

American League East

  1. Tampa Bay Rays 97-75
  2. Toronto Blue Jays 94-78
  3. New York Yankees 88-74
  4. Boston Red Sox 82-80
  5. Baltimore Orioles 66-96

National League West

  1. San Diego Padres 95-77
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers 92-70
  3. San Francisco Giants 81-81
  4. Colorado Rockies 71-91
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks 69-93

National League Central

  1. Milwaukee Brewers 90-72
  2. St. Louis Cardinals 84-78
  3. Cincinnati Reds 82-80
  4. Chicago Cubs 79-83
  5. Pittsburg Pirates 55-107

National League East

  1. Philadelphia Phillies 94-78
  2. New York Mets 91-71
  3. Atlanta Braves 89-73
  4. Miami Marlins 77-95
  5. Washington Nationals 72-90


Wild Card

Toronto Blue Jays over Houston Astros

New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers


Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays

Chicago cubs over Los Angeles Angels


San Diego Padres over New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies over Milwaukee Brewers


Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox


San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies

World Series

Tampa Bay Rays over San Diego Padres


AL Manager of the Year Joe Maddon

AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole

AL Most Valuable Player Vladimir Guerrero

NL Manager of the Year Bob Melvin

NL Cy Young Joe Musgrove

NL MVP Juan Soto

Thanks to the Padre’s second-half collapse last year, FanGraphs gives the Padres only a 69.5 (a decrease from 78 percent earlier this year) percent chance of reaching the playoffs. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have a 97.8 percent chance.

However, once the season begins, the predictions go out the window. It’s the play on the field that counts. For the first time in A.J. Preller’s tenure with the San Diego Padres, the team has an experienced, successful manager. Only time will tell where Bob Melvin will lead the team.

7 thoughts on “Early 2022 projections favorable for Padres

  1. Like the other commenters… I don’t see us finishing with as many wins as they’re crediting us with. Second most wins in baseball? No way.

    We have pitching. But, we had pitching last year until people got hurt and the staff collapsed. We have some hitting but not enough. Our outfield of Profar/Grisham/Myers will be lucky to generate 40 home runs as a group. That does not win games, a division, or a wildcard.

    spending more money is the only way this team gets good enough to contend. Barring a major trade, I don’t see us improving on this much. I thought AJ was insane to give Profar that contract. He’s a below average utility guy at best. He’s not a good outfielder yet he’s supposed to be our starter?

    I love my Padres. I have since ‘69. I’m also a realist. Fernando has cost us 5-10 wins with his three month absence. I do not see us overcoming his absence.

    1. Hello Tony,

      Thanks for reading and commenting. These predictions do seem very rosy. However, good pitching beats good hitting. If the starting rotation can live up to their promise it will make a huge difference in run prevention.

      Obviously the Padres most definitely have to shore up the outfield, and I’m surprised there’s been no movement so far. I continue to be surprised that the team isn’t moving Myers to left, as he’s better there defensively than in right.

      With Kim at shortstop, the defense will improve up the middle. So far during spring training, he sure looks more confident at the plate.

      Tatis Jr.’s absence has cost the team wins. However, having a first-rate experienced manager can make a huge difference.

      Plus there’s always the trade deadline, and Tatis Jr. will return right around that time.


    1. Hi Tom,
      98 does seem excessive. I’m concerned because the Padres have so little leeway as far as payroll. Obviously, Preller has had no luck moving Hosmer. And time is running out.
      Thanks as always for your comments,

      1. Of course you’re assuming that the team cannot spend above the CBA tax threshold. In reality, people who own baseball teams are billionaires and can easily afford to spend over the luxury tax threshold to improve their team. Not doing so to the detriment of on the field performance is embarrassingly dumb (looking at you Hal Steinbrenner).
        As for the Ground Ball King, worst case situation he should be platooned, but any scenario that isn’t horrible should be greenlit. The other question is who plays LF? To paraphrase Casey Stengel, you gotta have a LFer, otherwise you get a lot of triples to left.

  2. I found 2 items that bear discussion….the A’s winning a wild card, after effectively tearing down their roster to it’s core….and the Padres listed as a division winner, over the Dodgers…I’m a huge life long Padres fan, but, I realize that right now, man for man, the Pads cannot compete with a team who will always buy their way to the top with a nearly 300 million dollar payroll…it will take huge luck, and a lot of breaks, to even secure a wild card….Still, as it is often said…’ it’s why they play the games’ , and stranger things have happened, I guess…GO PADS….

    1. Thanks for reading and commenting! I too have been a fan since the beginning. However, I must admit that (having grown up a Dodger fan) I was not impressed with those early teams.
      These are very early predictions, so that needs to be taken into account. Year after year, the A’s manage to put together good teams despite low budgets and losing their best players. The Dodgers have the money but also spend it wisely…
      In baseball, anything can happen!

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