Contention Clock: Forecasting the Padres’ Window to Win
Credit: AP Photo
2020
*click*
The championship window has come unlatched, even if it hasn’t swung fully open just yet. The rest of the Padres’ current collection of hot prospects will finally make their much-anticipated debuts, with names like Adrian Morejon and Chris Paddack lighting up radar guns on the mound and raw sluggers Jorge Ona and Fernando Tatis, Jr. turning heads at the plate.
Solarte likely becomes too pricey at this point with an $8M club option available, especially as Wil Myers’ own salary balloons to $22.5M. The entirety of the Hedges-Renfroe-Margot trio will be making a little more money as well, as all three will be under arbitration if they haven’t yet been signed to long-term extensions (yes, I would count on each being a part of the Padres’ long-term plan).
It is also likely that whoever the team drafts with the third overall pick this summer will also join the big league club in the summer of 2020. Whether that player is a two-way star like Sports Illustrated cover boy Hunter Greene (Los Angeles, CA) or former Friar draftee Brendan McKay (University of Louisville), or one of the many college aces at the top of draft boards (North Carolina’s JB Bukauskas, Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright, and Florida’s Alex Faedo being chief among them), the Friars’ selection should make quick work of the organization’s minor league ranks.
Could America’s Finest City luck into a 2020 championship vision? It’s certainly not impossible. However, given the amount of young talent that would have to perform well right out of the gate, I wouldn’t bet on it just yet.
2021
Ah, there it is. A cool breeze and the smell of champagne – let the locker room festivities begin.
Anderson Espinoza will have developed into a poor man’s Pedro Martinez (high praise for a guy who will be jut 23 years old by then), and Cal Quantrill will have become a reliable starter with underrated flair for the occasional gem. Chris Paddack’s high strikeout numbers and less durable arm should make him a prime late-game option of the bullpen, while Adrian Morejon and Eric Lauer project to provide some southpaw symmetry in the rotation.
The line-up, meanwhile, has begun to resemble a sort of Midway Murderers’ Row:
C: Austin Hedges
1B: Wil Myers
2B: Luis Urias
3B: Ryan Schimpf
SS: Fernando Tatis, Jr. (Manny Machado?)
LF: Jorge Ona
CF: Manuel Margot
RF: Hunter Renfroe
Yes, by 2021, the Padres should once again be in the thick of the playoff hunt and have their eyes set on breaking what will by then be a 23-year absence from the Fall Classic. There’s no guarantee they’ll reach such a lofty ceiling – that’s why they play the games, of course – and the whole plan could be derailed by injuries and unexpected slumps, but things set up well now to blow the window for contention open once again. On a related note, that window should also stay open for a solid handful of campaigns given the amount of high-end youth that the Padres should have at their disposal.
Their primary rival for all of these upcoming championship chases? Those dastardly Dodgers, who will likely still have Clayton Kershaw fronting the pitching staff and a mix of Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Joc Pederson leading the line-up. They will also have the cash to make a major acquisition during that critical 2018 winter, and it’s not out of the question that one of the biggest names of that class – including Bryce Harper, A.J. Pollock, or the aforementioned Machado – could be in Dodger blue by then.
The combination should make for some fun summers in Southern California in the years to come, and the Padres certainly project to finally have the talent to take down the bad guys from Hollywood.
The best part: they’ll be wearing brown when they do it!
Ok, that might be too good to be true. We’re already America’s Finest City, after all; we can’t actually have it all.
The performance on the field, however, should more than make up for the yawn-inducing unis the hometown team could still be sporting by 2021, and the collection of baby-faced brilliance on the brink of its prime will absolutely still warrant a star hanging out of the broadcast booth.
Just don’t jump the gun, voices of the Friars. We still have 1,435 days to go.
Noah is a current undergraduate at the University of San Diego. In addition to his classes as a Business Economics student, Noah serves as the scouting director for the nationally-ranked USD baseball team and as an NFL correspondent with The Mighty 1090. You can follow him on Twitter @thebackseatlamp
Oh yea! Plus, I like the way websoulsurfer thinks. 🙂
If Joc Pederson is helping to lead the Dodgers in 2021, we’ll be fine.
Darvish, Arrieta, Cueto, Pineda, Chatwood are part the largest crop of quality starting pitchers in history that will be free agents this offseason.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
The Padres ownership has said that next season’s payroll will be about the same as 2015’s payroll. Since the payroll including arbitration and contract raises and money being paid to players who are not Padres anymore puts the payroll at about $30 million, that would indicate that they intend to spend $70-80 million. Either on free agents or on players they trade for.
Like the Cubs did in signing Lester prior to the 2015 season and after a 73 win 2014 season, the Padres will be active in the FA market this offseason in order to grab an anchor for the rotation from that huge FA market.
The 2018-2019 FA starting pitching class is not nearly as good with just Harvey and Kuechel standing out as top of the rotation type pitchers. It does include Jose Iglesias and Jean Segura and Preller may look to signing one of those two to solidify the shortstop position if one of the in-house options has not stepped up by then.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html
In terms of players that are likely to be traded by the deadline, they would include 2 or more of the 4 starting pitchers on one-year deals, a couple of relievers and Schimpf and Aybar.
Definitely some good thoughts here. I don’t know if I’d put Chatwood in the same sentence as those other names, but you’re right in saying that taking advantage of that class would make some sense. My concern would be that San Diego might not have the same draw as the Cubs and the chance players had in Chicago to end baseball’s most infamous title drought. We may want to sign them, but they may not want to join us without better indicators of success. To most of the league we are the ultimate tankers, and I don’t think that perception will change much by this winter. Love the thinking if we could sign one of them though!