An MLB The Show 18 Review and Padres Simulation
This past week, the popular baseball video game MLB The Show released its 2018 version with much fanfare. I pre-ordered my copy and began playing it four days early. I was excited to see Eric Hosmer and Freddy Galvis in Padres uniforms. I was also excited when they announced they would be adding the Padres’ 1998 uniform, for the 20th anniversary.
I was not disappointed! Of course, MLB The Show is always visually stunning. Petco Park is at its finest. I first wanted to get a look at the 1998 uniforms, which are one of my favorites, perhaps my favorite non-brown uniform. I chose to play with legend player Tony Gwynn to show off these uniforms.
The second picture has Gwynn playing on the road at Old Yankees Stadium, to get into the spirit of the 1998 nostalgia, playing at the site of his World Series home run.
Of course, this is younger Tony Gwynn, who didn’t play in these uniforms until he was a lot older than this but there is something special about seeing him in the 1998 pinstripes again.
The game itself has some new modifications, one being that Mark Derosa has replaced Mark Reynolds in the broadcast booth. I enjoy his passion and energy he brings to the MLB Network team and that translates well to this game. I can tell they didn’t give him much time to record as he doesn’t speak as often as I would like, but when he does, his comments are fresh and interesting.
No one does it better than former Padres broadcaster Matt Vasgersian, who is at it again with play-by-play. Dan Plesac does a good job with color commentary, as this truly feels like an MLB Network broadcast of any game you play, with the same scorebug, graphics and music MLBN uses.
I did two simulations of the 2018 Padres season, using the most updated roster. I set the lineup and rotation how the Padres have it currently. In one of the simulations, Luis Urias was called up in July and played the majority of the second half of the season. He hit .263, certainly respectable for his first half of a season in the major leagues.
I took the statistics and team record of those two simulations and averaged them out. Here are my findings…
Manuel Margot .238, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 139 H, 15 SB
Jose Pirela .270, 19 HR, 73 RBI, 125 H, 6 SB
Eric Hosmer .294, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 182 H, 12 SB
Wil Myers .256, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 151 H, 20 SB
Freddy Galvis .255, 21 HR, 86 RBI, 150 H, 10 SB
Chase Headley .269, 10 HR, 52 RBI, 146 H, 7 SB
Carlos Asuaje .282, 9 HR, 44 RBI, 156 H, 9 SB
Austin Hedges .230, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 99 H, 2 SB
Hunter Renfroe .250, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 73 H, 4 SB
I was surprised at how highly the game thought of Freddy Galvis, who see him as a 20+ home run guy. The Padres would be jubilant if Galvis put up numbers like these, not seen from a Padres shortstop since Khalil Greene. Also, Eric Hosmer had favorable numbers. His power looks to cap out at 22-25 home runs, but if he maintains and average around .300, I could live with that. Having both veteran everyday acquisitions with 20+ home runs and 86 RBI would be a huge win for San Diego.
On the flip side, I was taken aback by the bad numbers Manuel Margot put up. Both simulations had Margot hitting under .250 with very little power. I sure hope Margot far surpasses these numbers. Some scouts think he has 20-homer pop and could be a 20/20 guy soon. A season like this would be a turn for the worst. Wil Myers’ power numbers also took a deep dive while only marginally improving his slash line from 2017.
Renfroe seemed to improve his slash line with limited playing time. Hedges also improved his average and nearly repeated his 2017 power numbers.
Dinelson Lamet 4.05 ERA, 181 IP, 193 K
Tyson Ross 4.02 ERA, 173 IP, 178 K
Joey Lucchesi 4.82 ERA, 162 IP, 135 K
Clayton Richard 4.80 ERA, 200 IP, 109 K
Bryan Mitchell 5.55 ERA, 150 IP, 111 K
Brad Hand 3.68 ERA, 64 K, 43 Saves
Lamet looks to take a step forward this season, once healthy. These numbers would indicate positive progress, as he had a 4.57 ERA last season. A season like this from Tyson Ross would be most welcome and unexpected. Some do not expect Ross to last the season with the Friars, but if he were to have a season like this, he would be impossible to let go.
Lucchesi ended up pitching the whole season in one simulation and half in the other, with these numbers. Certainly, he has some work to do but there will be flashes of what he can become.
The two disappointments here are Richard and especially Mitchell. Richard gives 200 innings but they would be of the “inning-eating” variety, and nothing more, with this ERA near 5. The Padres see lots of potential in Mitchell and a season like this would be extremely disappointing.
I also thought it interesting in both simulations, Luis Perdomo spent the majority of the season in Triple-A.
Brad Hand has a higher ERA than we would expect from the All-Star closer, but he still gets 43 saves, which was second in the National League in one simulation.
The average of the two seasons put the Padres at a 68-94 record. This is certainly within the range of where most experts and projections have them. I would be disappointed with this. I am hoping the Padres can do what team executive Ron Fowler hopes and work to get near .500. Some of the “pro-tanking” fans would welcome a 94-loss season, but I think that is so 2017. It’s 2018, it’s time to get better and build towards a winning 2019 and beyond.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.
Awesome to hear about the 1998 uniform on there! And yeah, the predictions look pretty bad unfortunately, but that’s good news for Wil who will climb out of the .230 range. Hehe, .256… let’s hope. And what can you say about the record? We are probably closer to 68 wins than 81, and our SP is going to dictate that for the most part. Probably see a lot of high scoring losses this year and The Show got that right. All in all, the most we have to be excited for are video games and Single A talent as Padre fans. Unless Hosmer can also pitch really well…
I would say 68-70 wins is where I truly see them finishing, as of now. Pitching has been a problem early.