5 Reasons Why the Padres Should NOT Sign Eric Hosmer

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Speaking of minor league talent…

3- Josh Naylor is just one or two years away

Acquired in the 2016 trade for Andrew Cashner, Naylor was a 2015 first-round pick (twelfth overall) by the Miami Marlins. He currently the Padres’ number ten prospect, according to MLB.com.

“Naylor’s calling card is his plus-plus raw power from the left side of the plate, but it’s his natural feel for hitting that has stood out more early in his career. The Ontario native makes hard contact to all fields thanks to his plus bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination, and he also keeps the barrel in the zone longer than most young sluggers.”

Naylor finished last season at Double-A San Antonio, so he could be ready for the big leagues by mid-season 2019. But if the Padres sign Eric Hosmer, Naylor’s path is blocked. As with Renfroe, Hedges, Margot, and Carlos Asuaje, Naylor is a young man who needs (and deserves) the chance to see what he can do at the big-league level. But he can’t do that if Eric Hosmer is blocking his path.

As an aside, signing Hosmer pushes Wil Myers into left field, which pushes Jose Pirela, one of their biggest offensive surprises of 2017, out of a job. Pirela entered 2017 barely on manager Andy Green’s radar screen, but when given the chance, he thrived, batting .288 with ten home runs and 25 doubles with a .837 OPS in 312 at-bats (83 games). Do they really want to do that after Pirela made such an impact, and to boot, is quite a bit cheaper than Hosmer would be?

4- It makes no financial sense

Unlike the deep-pocket Dodgers, the San Diego Padres cannot afford to splurge on a high-priced free agent unless it is the right one. Given their limited resources, they have to be extra careful on whom they should spend a lot of money on. They have a far smaller margin of error than their competitors.

Credit: USA Today Sports

Remember also that the Padres are still on the docket to pay their former players the following in 2018:

Jedd Gyorko $2.5 million;
Hector Olivera $6.5 million (when they swapped Matt Kemp to Atlanta in 2016);
James Shields $11 million.

They only recently had to stop paying for Melvin Upton’s $11 million at the conclusion of last season.

5- The draft pick it will cost to sign him

The Padres are a team that should keep and use all of its draft selections wisely.

Eric Hosmer will cost the team that signs him as compensation pick equal to a low first-round or high second-round selection. Players taken in that range (30-45) still have a ton of potential value, and for a rebuilding team, their worth is even greater.

Should the Padres sign Eric Hosmer? Buyer beware. He could soon be joining that list and be yet another financial albatross hanging around their neck that holds the Friars back from success.

For these reasons, the Padres would be much better off taking a pass on Eric Hosmer and staying the course in their rebuild. While it might be more painful in the short term, the long-term benefits would be well worth the wait. Who knows? Down the road, say, heading into 2020, they could be one piece short of being a legitimate post-season contender. Then is the time to make a big splash on the free-agent market. Not now.

13 thoughts on “5 Reasons Why the Padres Should NOT Sign Eric Hosmer

  1. I appreciate your optimism that we’ll be contending in 2-3 years but that’s not going to happen- this isn’t 1984 where you can just add a few veterans. Our big prospects are deep in the developmental phase and still have to pan out.

    You did leave out one reason that is utmost in my mind: AJ has no understanding of front-line major league contracts,whether signing them or taking them on: Here are a few that came, went, or didn’t happen: Wil Myers (80-something million, really?), James Shields, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Melvin Upton,… Jedd Gyorko (yes, we still pay for him even though it wasn’t an AJ deal).

  2. I think it’s time for the Padres. Maybe a year away but on the right track.

    1. Hosmer helps with that.
    2. Padres go get Yelich
    3. We put the Blue uni’s in the trash. Bring the BROWN back. It’s time we get our identity back. It’s time for OUR PADRES TO BE IN BROWN AND START WINNING NOW

    1. Agreed on the blue garbage they wear. Sad we look like the Rays and Brewers. At least hit it with orange or yellow… nm, Blue has to go. I like your #2 on the list, I don’t quite trust our minor league coaching as it’s netted zero, so I say trade for him. Hosmer? Sure, I guess if we’re getting Yelich but I’m a little concerned about money for arms….

  3. Pirela hadn’t spent much time in the majors before last season. He had a nice year and the Padres aren’t contenders this year anyway so why not see if he can do it again. No on Hosmer and CarGo.

  4. Thanks for the great article. Only 5 reasons? There are many more, but time and space are limited. If we had to boil it down to one main reason, it would be: “***But before 2017, his numbers really weren’t much: from 2011-2016, he batted a collective .277/.335/.428, averaging just 17 home runs and 79 RBI. His combined WAR during those six seasons was a meager 10.1—under two wins per year above a replacement value player.”*** Everyone and his cousin’s sister’s brother hit at least 20 homers last year (unless they happened to be on the Padres). So 25 HR’s is not impressive in 2017, and it is actually VERY weak for a first baseman. MLB set the all-time record for homers last year, so it is the best time to be a FA 1B with a bump from 17 HR’s to 25, and it is a bad time to be a buyer of free agents, especially Boras free agents. Buying high on an anomaly-type year is foolish, are the Padres that foolish?

  5. I disagree.
    One, Pirela played out of his mind and most likely won’t repeat, or is part of our future plans.
    Two, Signing Hosmer makes us better at 2 positions. First, and LF where Myers will move. Myers will be one of the most athletic LF in the league and Renfroe will be much better than last year defensively.
    Three, Naylor isn’t out 10th rated prospect anymore. He regressed so to speak last year and is destined to be a DH w his large frame.
    Four, we are most likely offering 18mil a year and Hosmer has all the intangibles, durability, left handed and potentially just peaking. He also has on base skills and a thin frame which could make him a good player for the length of his contract.
    Five, The Royals love this guy and know him better than anyone. If they are offering him around what we are, we most likely will have to overpay a little bit and I’m ok w that since our young guys will be making pennies and our payroll will still be very low, and those salary dumps will be mostly gone by next year where we will still have plenty of money to sign a Kuechel to anchor the rotation. I also think we should trade for Yelich, and send Renfroe, Spangenberg, Morejon, and Quantrill packing.

    1. I’m glad you pointed out Myer’s athletic ability in LF. I think he will excel in LF. He is not a center fielder and was playing out of position during his first year as a Padre. He was a corner outfielder during his ROY campaign. That’s where he belongs.

      I think that package would get Yelich but I wouldn’t include Morejon . I don’t see why we need to give up two of our top 5 prospects for Yelich. In a perfect Padre world our number 13 prospect Logan Allen would work.

      Hosmer is a great opportunity to lock down 2 veteran position players for our multiple world series runs.
      Potential 2019 Line up:
      Headley (I’m playing)

      1. I like your proposal better. I think we should trade for Yelich if we’re going to get Hosmer. That’d be two solid young vets. Definitely should trade Hand to recoup some if the prospects lost for Yelich. I definitely think we need a SS for the future. Tatis is prob a 3b long term. If we could get Baez for Hand straight up, I’d pull the trigger. His pop would make up for Hosmer and Yelichs contactstyle and lack of big power you’d expect from a corner OF and 1B. Once Myers reasserts himself as a good player, we could trade him if Cordero develops. I’m really excited about him. Trade Naylor as he’s blocked, Headley and Solarte need to go as well asap. Give Asuaje and Villanueva time this year to see what they can do. If there is an injury Pirela can step in at a lot of positions. Not sure his value,but you could flip him as well.
        Exciting time to be a Padre fan. Nice to see this site putting up fun articles daily.

      2. I’d agree with the Yelich trade but I have the feeling Jeter’s ego is in shambles so he’s gonna ask for more than what you listed B-rad. I mean, I think that’s a fair swap but I think he’s gonna be looking for a trade that cements the “next phase” of the franchise (whether or not he cares truly). He’s not much in the brain dept. or as a salesman so I don’t know if we can get Yelich without paying dearly. I think it’s one of those trades that comes with a few top ten prospects in it.

    2. B-rad?!!? Man, I’m with you on your stuff normally but Myers is a garbage outfielder. I think he can learn but now is not the time! Anyway, agreed on the rest of it. Wil would really need to get to work though, I don’t quite see why he’s been so bad out there.

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