There are rumors of a Nick Senzel trade, but would the San Diego Padres be better served to just keep Wil Myers on their roster?
If the Padres were to keep Wil Myers on their roster for the 2020 season, he would make $22.5 million.
From 2020-2022, he is owed a combined $67.5 million.
From an economics perspective, it makes sense for the team to move on from Myers. From an offensive standpoint, Myers’s contract does not justify his production.
Since his first two years in Tampa Bay, which included a Rookie of the Year award, his OPS has been inconsistent, and has fallen over the last three seasons:
According to Figure One, Myers’s never reached 0.800 or higher in his five years in San Diego.
With the decline in production, combined with a substantial contract, it is logical that the Padres are looking to trade him. However, there is a significant asterisk to this discussion.
It is rumored that the team is in trade talks with Boston and Cincinnati on a potential three-way deal. If the trade took place, Reds outfielder Nick Senzel would be heading to San Diego. Essentially, the Padres are acquiring unknown upside. A former 2nd overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft, Senzel completed his rookie season in 2019, where he showed productivity, posting an OPS of 0.742.
Relative to Myers, his offensive output is somewhat equal. However, Myers is a better offensive player than Senzel in some respects. Yes, last year was Senzel’s rookie campaign, but one cannot ignore the numbers. In 2019, Myers had a better On-Base Percentage (OBP%), Isolated Power (ISO), and Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP):
While one can argue that Myers played 51 more games then Senzel, and had more opportunities to contribute to San Diego, he has still more effective as a player overall. While the potential is enticing, as Senzel is five years younger than Myers, his immediate offensive output will only be equal, if not less than Myers’, especially if you factor in that Senzel plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
The defensive aspect is something to consider when evaluating the two players, but the main focus of this article is to evaluate their offensive profile.
From a long-term perspective, Myers is under contract for the next three years, and based on his career trajectory, his offensive production will be somewhat consistent. In trading for Senzel, there is a level of risk. While some may argue that he will be cost-controlled over the next several years, it is most likely that the Padres will pay for at least half of Myers’s remaining salary for another organization to consider trading their resources to acquire his services.
Here are two working scenarios for the Padres:
Scenario One: Trade Myers:
Working under this assumption, Myers is on the Padres’ payroll at $33.75 million from 2020-2022 and play somewhere else. If the Padres were to trade and acquire Nick Senzel as his replacement, their return is a player that is somewhat comparable offensively at cheaper dollars, but with a large amount of risk, as his production might plateau in Petco Park.
Scenario Two: Keep Myers:
Myers has established who he is as a player at this point in his career, heading into his age 30 season in 2020. While the contract is not tremendous, the roster is supplemented with the talents of Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and Fernando Tatis Jr. By having talent at multiple offensive positions on a team, this will only provide balance to what Myers may, or may not offer, for the franchise. Not to mention that he is a slightly better offensive player, relative to Nick Senzel, at this point in their respective careers.