Vedder Cup Trade: A Win-Win Scenario for Padres and M’s Involving Mike Leake

Jul 19, 2019; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Mike Leake (8) throws against the Los Angeles Angels during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

With the trade winds picking up speed by the day, it’s essential to look at some possible under-the-radar deals as well.

The Padres need a starting pitcher, or two, or three. Just acquiring one of Noah Syndergaard, Trevor Bauer or Marcus Stroman will not automatically turn the Padres into a 90-win team. The key to winning a championship is depth and having depth everywhere.

Before we go any further, this is not to suggest that 31-year-old Mike Leake is the missing ingredient to having a championship parade in the Gaslamp Quarter, but there could be multiple benefits into looking at a possible deal with the Seattle Mariners for the starting pitcher formerly of Fallbrook High School.

The most recent World Series champions have all had ridiculous starting pitching depth, and that is by no accident.

Mike Leake is past his prime, let’s not dance around that fact. His best season was in 2013 with the Reds when he had a 3.37 ERA in 31 starts with a 112 ERA+. However, that does not mean Leake couldn’t be valuable to a young team like the Padres.

Leake is an innings-eater with at least 150 innings pitched every season since his rookie year in 2010. He has made 30 starts in seven straight seasons. In an evolving starting rotation in San Diego, Leake could become a trusty fifth starter to lead this young group and eat innings.

The Mariners are in the middle of a rebuild, one that they hope is quick, but it looks like they are a step (or year?) or two behind the Padres and their rebuild. Seattle has shown they are willing to take on messy contracts (see Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, and Anthony Swarzak).

Seattle’s General Manager Jerry DiPoto did a great job rebuilding a thin farm system this past winter and went from one of the worst to now 15th in the league according to FanGraphs. Surely, he wants to bolster it further.

The Padres likely are trying to rid themselves of Wil Myers’ contract which is turning more into an albatross by the day as it balloons from $5 million to $20 million next season. His production is doing the exact opposite as he is hitting a lowly .213 with 12 home runs and a major league-high strikeout rate of 36.3 percent. He also has been next to useless in the field, with a total of -7 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield, all this resulting in a -0.6 WAR.

If the Padres are ever to deal Myers, it will likely cost them a prospect they highly regard as well. That’s how the market works today. However, Leake isn’t exactly cheap either, as he is owed $15 million next year.

Colby Patnode of Fansided’s Sodo Mojo also entertained the idea.


Basically, the Padres would be ridding themselves of the three-year, $60 million contract of an outfielder who is a below-average fielder and hitter at this point, for one year and $15 million at a position they desperately need with a guy who is still putting up respectable numbers (4.25 ERA, 103 ERA+ in 21 starts this year).

Luckily for the Padres, Leake’s contract would also prevent the Mariners from being able to ask for premium prospects. However, to ask the Mariners to take on the entirety of Myers’ remaining contract, it won’t be for free.

Credit: Sod Poodles

The trade I am proposing involves two Padres prospects who are both blocked by a player that will be on the major league roster for at least another four years and possibly nine, pending the player option. That player is, of course, Manny Machado. The prospects are Triple-A power hitter Ty France and third baseman Hudson Potts.

France’s name doesn’t bring as much clout as Potts since France is ranked 27th in the Padres’ organization while Potts is ninth and five years younger. France came up for a brief spell when Fernando Tatis Jr. was hurt, and Machado had to move to shortstop and showed he was not quite ready for The Show, batting .235 with a .647 OPS in 34 games. Potts is in Double-A Amarillo, with 10 home runs and a .695 OPS, not eye-popping but he is young for that level.

The Mariners have a guy named Kyle Seager, who has manned third base for the better part of nine years with an All-Star selection and a Gold Glove to his name. Clearly, he is on the decline, at nearly 32 years old and is having his second straight career-worst year at the plate (.199 average, .691 OPS). His replacement needs to be ready soon.

Giving Seattle France and Potts would ensure they have two reliable options for their future as well as an option to be a designated hitter to provide depth behind 2019 All-Star Dan Vogelbach.

Meanwhile, the Padres get a reliable arm, a local kid that is easy to root for and that is under contract for the 2020 season, a season in which the Padres envision to be fully in contention. Championship teams need guys like Leake in the rotation. The 2017 champion Astros had Mike Fiers, a 32-year-old who gave them 150 innings and 28 starts in the back end of their rotation.

In the end, the Padres rid themselves of Myers’ contract, add a starting pitcher and do not lose their most prized prospects. If the Mariners feel their return isn’t enough, San Diego can always send cash to aid in paying for Myers. Also, Myers just might benefit from a change of scenery and the option to be a DH.

The Mariners and Padres have been trading partners quite frequently over the years, as they have made five deals since A.J. Preller took over in San Diego in August of 2014.

Of course, the Padres still need to acquire a front-line starter, but Leake would add value to a young, thin rotation and also help the Padres free themselves of Myers’ deal.

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5 thoughts on “Vedder Cup Trade: A Win-Win Scenario for Padres and M’s Involving Mike Leake

  1. This isn’t a trade, it’s a toilet flush.
    Myers and 2 spare parts will not get any kind of return, least of all a useful pitcher. If Potts and France were well regarded the club wouldn’t have signed Machado.
    No, if we want to move Myers we will have to attach real value to him, and take back a prospect. The better idea is trading Yates and Myers, plus some cash, for a top prospect.

  2. Look I’m probably in the minority here but the idea the Padres need multiple pitchers is just not true. What is true is the need a TOR arm that will lead their internal candidates into a competitive window starting in 2020. Mike Leake isn’t that guy. Lamet, Paddack, and Richard are all but certain to be there. Quantrill is starting to separate himself and making a case to be in that group too. The rest of Lucchesi, Lauer, Allen, Morejon, Baez, Strahm, Nix, Avila (both just pitched an inn and 2/3 last night) and Miguel Diaz can definitely fill at least one and very possibly two. This isn’t even factoring MacKenzie Gore, Ronald Bolanos, Emmanuel Ramirez, and an outsider shot at Patino (in the same spot Chris Paddack was last season). They have plenty of pitching and have yet to produce one big league position player outside of the savvant FTJ.

    So that brings us back to both teams having reason to pursue your proposal in framework. The dollars for Leake was 16M this year but of the money STL threw in 4M applies in 2019. So 11M or probably about 4.5M left for this season. 2020 is 15M but STL threw in 4M here so net 11M. They don’t need the mutual option of 18M for 2021 but they will have a 5M buyout. So in total we are talking 20 .5M for 1.5 yrs. Wil has 1.5M left in 2019. And then 21M for the next three years. 64.5M for 3.5 yrs for Wils age 28- 31 seasons. So what’s 44M amongst both teams in need?

    There is no a deal can be made. Me personally, would rather include Urias than Potts. There is at least a half of dozen players that can fill the Urias void and a couple are currently in Amarillo having solid seasons. Potts might be blocked, but he is an untapped valuable position player that could have emmense value. He was trending with Nolan Jones until a rough go in Amarillo. As of late he is figuring it out. Ty France would be a piece that makes total sense as does Austin Allen actually. My thought is this. Send 6M and season w Wil for 2020 through 2022 and pick up the rest of Wils salary in 2019. Send prospects headlined by Ty France, Austin Allen, Ronald Bolanos, and Eric Yardley or Hansel Rodriguez. Wil will end up costing Sea. 25M for 3.5 yrs and can be flipped for more prospects if he recovers to Evan 2016 numbers. DiPoto also gets 4 lottery tickets to strike gold with.

    You’re welcome.

  3. I like the general idea, but the Mariners would want much better prospects than Potts/France, and would require the Padres to at eat at least a third of Myers’ contract for this deal to happen. It would still be worth it, in my opinion, if it allowed the Padres to get rid of Myers.

  4. So is Myers on the plane yet? Can I assist with transportation? Fact is we could add like 4 guys plus Myers and clear up our 40 man roster crunch. Stock or G. Reyes, Erlin or Marge, Gettys, and France plus $15M.

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